Executive Summary: Key Takeaways

• Mexico’s trade with China is large and highly imbalanced; the deficit reached record levels in 1H-2025. 

• Mexico is planning broad new tariffs (many products; some up to 50%) targeting China/Asia, aligning more closely with U.S./Canada stances and ahead of the USMCA review. China has opened a trade investigation in response.

• Anti-dumping probes against Chinese goods have accelerated in 2025. 

• Auto/EV is the flashpoint: U.S. 100% tariffs on Chinese EV's + ROO scrutiny; Mexico signaling higher tariffs on Chinese autos; BYD paused/canceled its Mexico plant plans. 

The Numbers: Trade Snapshot 2025

Snapshot of trade between China and Mexico, January-July 2025:

• Mexican exports to China totaled $5,357 million dollars (Banxico).
• Chinese imports to Mexico were $73,708 million dollars (Banxico).

Top imported products from China (during 2024):

• Telephones - 8.25%
• Machine parts & accessories - 4.67%
• Motor cars and other vehicles - 4.66%
• Motor car parts & accessories - 4.14%

Top exported products to China (during 2024):

• Copper - 40.5%
• Motor car parts & accessories - 8.92%
• Medical devices - 3.93%
• Electronic boards - 3.21%
• Telephones - 2.53%

Policy Landscape: New Mexican Tariffs & China’s Response

• Mexico prepping tariffs on 1,000+ tariff lines (autos, textiles, toys, steel, appliances). Some rates up to 50%; framed as industry defense and North American alignment.

• China’s Ministry of Commerce investigation into Mexico’s measures (claims of trade/investment barriers). 

• Diplomatic backdrop: Sheinbaum administration balancing USMCA stability and U.S. pressure with domestic industrial policy. 

Enforcement Tightening: Anti-dumping & IMMEX Scrutiny

• Mexico has launched 11 anti-dumping probes vs. Chinese products in 2025 (near double last year), signaling tougher trade defense. 

• Heightened oversight of IMMEX abuse (steel case examples) amid U.S. concerns about tariff circumvention via Mexico.

Auto/EV: The Geopolitical Pressure 

• USMCA rules of origin are tightening (and heavily policed) to prevent simple transshipment; ROOs remain the gate to duty-free access. 

• Mexico signaling higher tariffs on Chinese autos; industry warns of a “complex outlook” ahead of the 2026 USMCA review and U.S. truck/EV tariffs.

• BYD in Mexico: paused/canceled factory plans in 2025 amid U.S. trade tensions and tech-security concerns; underscores uncertainty for new Chinese OEM capacity in Mexico. 

North American Context & Transshipment Risk

• U.S./Canada have raised barriers (e.g., 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs; steel/aluminum measures); Mexico is moving closer to align—with USMCA 2026 review looming.

• Companies must evidence substantial transformation & ROO compliance to avoid being caught in circumvention probes. 

Opportunities for Operators

• Localized supply chains: Strengthen Tier-2/Tier-3 in Mexico to reduce Asian content exposure and meet Rules of Origin. 

• Shared Service & Tech hubs: Services less tariff-exposed; leverage Mexico’s talent for corporate/IT functions while managing data/security compliance.

• Strategic site selection: Choose locations aligned with enforcement-ready logistics, customs oversight, and sector clusters (auto, aerospace, electronics).

• Institutional relations: Engage early with Secretaría de Economía, SAT/Customs, and states to navigate incentives and trade-defense climate (especially for Chinese capital).

Risk Map: What to Watch in 2025–2026

• Final design, scope and implementation of Mexico’s tariff package on Chinese/Asian goods (coverage & timelines).

• Trajectory of anti-dumping cases and any safeguard actions. 

• USMCA 2026 review themes: ROO rigidity, enforcement coordination on circumvention, sector-specific deals (auto, steel). 

• Any revival/retreat of Chinese OEM manufacturing plans in Mexico. 

Compliance & Execution Checklist 

• Trade compliance: Confirm HS classifications; model tariff exposure and USMCA outcomes; document origin/value-add thoroughly.

• Supply chain: Dual-source critical inputs; increase North American content; audit vendors for anti-dumping exposure.

• Corporate structure: Evaluate operational models in Mexico for compliance; map tax/labor impacts.

• Government engagement: Build a proactive narrative (investment, jobs, tech transfer); prepare for consultations if your products land on Mexico’s tariff lists. 

Mexico–China trade is entering a policy-heavy, enforcement-first phase. Firms that localize content, document origin, and plan scenarios around new tariffs will be best positioned for resilience through the USMCA 2026 review and beyond.

Interested in an Advisory Session from Xu Yu?

Contact media@prodensa.com for questions.