Security Is the New Trade Policy in North America

For decades, North America was built on a clear premise: economic integration was the most effective path to growth, competitiveness, and stability. That premise has not disappeared—but it is now facing its most significant test in more than a generation.

This article is a continuation of the panel “We Take Care of Our Own: National and Economic Security in North America,” held during the North Capital Forum 2025, which Prodensa’s experts attended firsthand. Based on the insights shared during that discussion, we are publishing this piece to offer business leaders and investors a clearer perspective on how security, integration, and geopolitics are reshaping North America—and what this means for companies seeking to do business in Mexico.

The panel made one thing clear: North America has a historic opportunity to deepen its integration, but it also faces a real risk of moving backward if the region fails to act with clarity, coordination, and strategic vision.

Security as an Integrated Concept

Gerónimo Gutiérrez, former Ambassador of Mexico to the United States, noted that there has never been a better moment to strengthen North American economic integration—and never a higher risk of losing momentum.

Why? Because three dimensions of security have become inseparable:

• Traditional security, linked to organized crime, drug trafficking, and border cooperation.

• Economic security, related to clear trade rules, investment certainty, and resilient supply chains.

• Geopolitical security, shaped by strategic competition with China and an increasingly fragmented global environment.

These dimensions can no longer be managed independently. Today, trade decisions carry political and security implications, while security policies directly affect investment flows and industrial relocation decisions.

For companies, this means a more complex operating environment—but also one that rewards those able to anticipate and interpret it strategically.

The USMCA: Between Integration and Uncertainty

A central focus of the panel was the upcoming review—or potential renegotiation—of the USMCA. Although the agreement remains in force until 2036, panelists agreed that uncertainty itself has already become an economic risk.

Carlos Gutiérrez, former U.S. Secretary of Commerce, warned that framing the Mexico–U.S. relationship through the lens of a “trade deficit” would be a strategic mistake of enormous proportions. North America does not function like other trade relationships; it is a deeply integrated productive ecosystem in which Mexico contributes competitive manufacturing, while the United States scales, innovates, and generates employment.

Disrupting that balance would not strengthen the region—it would weaken it against global competitors.

From Canada, Graeme C. Clark cautioned that Washington may increasingly use security issues as negotiating leverage, shifting the conversation away from purely commercial considerations. This reinforces the reality that the USMCA is no longer discussed solely in terms of tariffs or rules of origin, but as part of a broader debate around strategic alignment.

Security Cooperation and Organized Crime: Progress or Regression

John Negroponte, former U.S. Ambassador to Mexico, argued that bilateral security cooperation has advanced more in recent years than in previous decades, including extraditions, military coordination, and joint intelligence mechanisms.

Panelists broadly agreed that any unilateral U.S. intervention in Mexico would represent a serious error, with profound diplomatic and economic consequences. Such an approach would neither solve organized crime challenges nor preserve the business environment that regional competitiveness depends on.

For the private sector, this point is critical. Stability and predictability are foundational conditions for investment. Institutional cooperation—while imperfect—remains the only viable path to sustaining a stable operating environment in North America.

China: The Competitor Redefining the Rules

China emerged as the one topic that generated near-unanimous consensus among panelists—not as a rhetorical threat, but as the most formidable economic competitor North America has faced.

Carlos Gutiérrez emphasized that China does not merely compete—it executes. It plans long-term, aligns the state with the productive sector, and moves quickly. Its rapid penetration of Mexico’s automotive market, capturing close to 20% share in just a few years, illustrates its capacity to scale.

Two potential scenarios emerged for Mexico and the region:

• A more closed North American bloc with common rules in response to China.

• A more open model in which Chinese investment integrates into regional supply chains under the USMCA framework.

What panelists agreed is that Mexico cannot realistically “choose” China over North America. The depth of regional integration makes such a decision practically unviable without severe economic costs.

Immigration and Labor Markets: A Structural Reality

The migration debate—often highly politicized—was addressed from a more structural perspective. Negroponte reminded the audience that millions of workers of Mexican origin have been essential in meeting U.S. labor demand for decades. Restrictive policies may offer short-term political signals, but they do not resolve underlying economic realities.

One of the most relevant concepts raised during the panel was that of “misguided economic nationalism.” Gutiérrez warned that the greatest risk to North America is not nationalism itself, but interpretations that confuse protection with isolation.

Panelists agreed that the post-Trump world will not return to the previous status quo. Companies must assume a more demanding environment—one that is more political and increasingly shaped by security and strategic alignment considerations.

Economic Security:

The ability of a region to maintain stable trade, investment flows, and resilient supply chains amid geopolitical tension and regulatory change. Economic security has become a core factor in corporate risk assessment.

Geopolitical Alignment:

The strategic positioning of countries and companies within global power dynamics. In North America, alignment increasingly influences trade policy, investment approval, and supply chain design.

Regional Integration:

The deep interconnection of production, labor, and capital across Mexico, the United States, and Canada. Regional integration goes beyond trade and shapes competitiveness, innovation, and security.

Supply Chain Resilience:

The capacity of supply networks to absorb shocks, adapt to disruption, and maintain continuity through diversification, nearshoring, and strategic planning.

Is North American integration still a reliable framework for long-term investment

Yes. Despite political noise, the structural integration of Mexico, the U.S., and Canada continues to provide scale, efficiency, and resilience unmatched by other regions.

How does security influence investment decisions today?

Security considerations—economic, geopolitical, and traditional—are now embedded in trade policy, site selection, and supply chain strategy.

Will the USMCA remain stable through 2030?

While uncertainty exists, the agreement’s depth and mutual dependence make continued cooperation the most likely outcome.

What role should companies play in this environment?

Companies must move from passive observers to active participants—engaging policymakers, planning for risk, and communicating the value of regional trade.

• North America’s competitiveness depends on managing security, integration, and geopolitics as a single strategic equation.

• Mexico’s role is not peripheral—it is central to the region’s industrial and economic stability.

• Companies that understand the political and security context will make better investment and supply chain decisions.

• Strategic partners with local expertise are essential to navigating uncertainty and executing long-term plans.