The USMCA review could increase pressure to raise regional content requirements, but the real challenge for companies will be developing the suppliers, talent and production capabilities needed to retain a greater share of supply chain value within North America.
While USMCA rules of origin are a customs requirement, they have also become a key variable in North American supply chain strategy. For manufacturers, the challenge is no longer simply proving that a product meets a specific percentage of regional content. The more important question is: How much of the product’s value is actually being generated within the region?
This was one of the main topics discussed during the “Rules of Origin and North American Value Chains” panel at the North Capital Forum 2026, featuring Javier Díaz González, Mayor of Saltillo; Francisco González, Executive President of the National Auto Parts Industry Association (INA); Marco Rodríguez Huesca of Daimler Truck; and Ernesto Stein, Director of the BBVA-TEC Center for Trade Policy and Global Value Chains for North America (CEPCAN) at Tecnológico de Monterrey.
The panel made one point clear: raising regional content percentages under the USMCA does not automatically lead to deeper productive integration. The challenge is more complex. It requires developing suppliers, capabilities, infrastructure, energy, talent, and traceability systems that allow a greater share of value to remain within Mexico, the United States, and Canada.
Rules of origin are intended to ensure that the tariff benefits of a trade agreement remain within its member countries. To receive preferential treatment, a product must demonstrate that it meets the criteria required to be considered originating within the region. However, those criteria vary significantly by product.
Ernesto Stein explained that the USMCA includes an annex spanning hundreds of pages, with rules defined product by product and important differences across industries. In the automotive and heavy-truck sectors, for example, the requirements are considerably stricter, while in much of the electronics industry they are more flexible.
Stein used AI servers as an example. A company can import semiconductors, electronic boards, chassis, and power units from Asia, assemble them in Mexico, and export them to the United States while still complying with the applicable rules of origin—even if the final product contains relatively little Mexican sourcing.
The key issue, therefore, is not only how much Mexico exports, but how much value added actually remains in Mexico and within North America.
Electronics Is a Challenge
For automobiles and heavy trucks, the USMCA establishes high regional content thresholds and specific requirements for essential components, as well as rules related to steel, aluminum and labor value content. In electronics, however, many products are subject to significantly less demanding regional content requirements.
For Stein, this creates an opportunity for Mexico—not necessarily by imposing higher requirements immediately, but by gradually building the conditions that allow manufacturers to replace external suppliers with regional ones.
A stricter rule without a sufficiently developed supplier base could ultimately make the region less competitive. A gradual approach, combined with supplier development, could instead become a tool for strengthening North American integration.
Stein also warned that imposing a high regional content requirement too quickly in electronics could lead AI server manufacturers to consider relocating operations to other countries where they can source components at more competitive prices.
For companies, this changes the logic behind location decisions. It is no longer enough to ask how much it costs to manufacture in Mexico. Companies also need to evaluate which suppliers already exist, which ones can be developed, which components can be regionalized, and how much it will cost to meet origin requirements over time.
Higher origin requirements have encouraged companies from different parts of the world to establish operations in Mexico in order to become part of North American value chains. González noted that companies from the United States, Canada, Europe, Asia, and other markets have invested in Mexico to take advantage of regional integration.
The next phase, however, will be different. The automotive industry is incorporating more electronics, software, artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, hybrids and other advanced technologies. This means the regional content discussion can no longer focus only on engines, transmissions, stamping, or mechanical components.
Technology content will also become part of the competition for greater value added. González noted that the industry needs to develop new capabilities in software, advanced materials, and electronic components, while preparing for technologies such as electric vehicles, hybrids and even hydrogen-related applications.
For manufacturers, this means looking at the supply chain from a much broader perspective: How much critical technology is developed within the region? Which electronic components can be manufactured locally? What engineering capabilities are available? And which suppliers have the capacity to scale?
In some cases, manufacturers end up producing components in-house because they cannot find suppliers that meet the required specifications or production scale. This creates an additional challenge when regional content requirements increase.
Rodríguez noted that his operation was still transitioning toward certain regional content thresholds, while discussions about raising those requirements again were already taking place before some companies had completed their adaptation process.
The key takeaway for any company operating within complex industrial supply chains is that a rule of origin may be technically achievable while still being economically difficult to meet.
Manufacturing in Mexico is not enough.
In other words, the physical regionalization of a supply chain must be supported by documentary and compliance regionalization as well. This puts origin management systems, certifications, supplier records, and traceability at the center of trade strategy.
For manufacturers, understanding the origin of each component is no longer only a customs responsibility. It can directly affect sourcing strategy, supplier selection, product design, tax planning, and the overall viability of an investment.
The discussion around rules of origin raises several decisions that companies with operations or expansion plans in Mexico should begin evaluating.
North American supply chains are evolving, and complying with rules of origin requires much more than reviewing certificates.
Companies need to understand how their supply chains are structured, how much regional value they generate, where supplier risks exist, and where substitution or investment opportunities could strengthen their position under future regulatory scenarios.
Prodensa can support companies looking to establish, expand or deepen their integration in Mexico through supply chain analysis, site selection, supplier development, foreign trade compliance, and investment assessment.
In the next phase of North American manufacturing, producing in Mexico is only the first step. The real value lies in building a competitive, traceable, and resilient regional supply chain prepared for what comes next.
Notice: The content of this blog is developed by Prodensa for informational and educational purposes regarding nearshoring, foreign trade, human capital, and manufacturing in Mexico. Although we strive to keep the information accurate and up to date, laws and regulations may change. This material is not a substitute for specialized professional advice. Prodensa is not responsible for decisions made based on this content without appropriate professional consultation.