I had the opportunity to attend the Farnborough International Airshow in London a few weeks ago, one of the most important gatherings in the global aerospace industry. When I returned to Mexico, I couldn’t help but reflect on the moment our industry is going through and, above all, on the signals I picked up from conversations with industry leaders.
Three conclusions became very clear to me.
The first: the global aerospace industry is booming. Growth is being fueled by increased defense spending in Europe and other regions, along with strong demand in commercial aviation. Mexico’s figures are the best reflection of this trend. Today, we are the world’s fourth-largest aerospace exporter. By the end of 2025, our exports had surpassed $11 billion, and everything indicates that we will maintain that record level through the end of 2026. Eighty percent of those exports are destined for the United States, demonstrating an almost complete integration into the North American supply chain under the USMCA.
The value of Mexico’s aerospace industry is currently estimated at approximately $8.88 billion, and the Mexican Space Program 2026–2030 projects that this figure will more than double, reaching $22.7 billion by 2029. Since 2004, our exports have grown at an average annual rate of 14%, outpacing global industry growth rates. This is no coincidence.
The second conclusion, and perhaps the most encouraging, is that companies already established in Mexico are doubling down on their commitment. I clearly saw how many of them continue to expand at an accelerated pace, even though not all of them communicate it publicly. The industrial ecosystem has grown from just 100 companies in 2004 to a network of more than 380 companies across 19 states.
Airbus purchases more than $700 million annually from Mexican suppliers and recently invested 646.7 million pesos to expand its plant in Colón, Querétaro, where it now assembles doors from scratch for its commercial aircraft. Viva Aerobus is building a maintenance (MRO) complex in Querétaro with an investment of 4 billion pesos (approximately $222 million), scheduled to open in 2027. And at Farnborough itself, Chihuahua announced an $80 million investment by ATI Materials to establish ATI Forged Products in the state, a project that will create more than 230 specialized jobs.
Querétaro, meanwhile, took advantage of the event to hold meetings with between 50 and 60 supplier companies, exploring their interest in establishing operations in the region. Safran, Bombardier, ITP Aero, Aernnova, and Airbus continue to invest and expand.
Just five states account for 95% of the sector’s employment and value: Querétaro, Chihuahua, Baja California, Sonora, and Nuevo León. The industry generates between 60,000 and 65,000 specialized jobs, with Querétaro accounting for 35% of that workforce. Advanced manufacturing represents 79% of the sector’s revenue, while maintenance (MRO) contributes 10% and design and engineering services account for 11%.
But here comes the third conclusion, and it is the one that concerns me the most: Mexico is facing a more challenging environment for attracting new aerospace investment. At Farnborough, I sensed that, compared with previous years, fewer companies are considering Mexico as their next expansion destination. There is a growing perception that our competitiveness has weakened due to tariffs, labor reforms, continued increases in the minimum wage, and other structural factors.
This perception is real and we need to take it seriously. Between 2006 and 2025, the sector attracted cumulative Foreign Direct Investment of $5.505 billion, led by the United States (62%), Canada (25%), and France (11%). But in 2025, FDI in the sector amounted to just $171.8 million. The trend is slowing at a time when the world is competing fiercely for every dollar of investment.
Chihuahua has secured $220 million across nine new operations in the sector under its current state administration. It is an important achievement, but insufficient if we want to reach the goals of the Mexican Space Program.
The future is not written, but the decisions we make today will write it.
Mexico has everything it needs to remain a leading player in the global aerospace industry: qualified talent, infrastructure, trade integration with North America, and a track record of unstoppable growth. But we cannot take that leadership for granted. Competition is intense, and global investors are becoming increasingly demanding.